@article{oai:niigata-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00006176,
 author = {Honda, Akiko},
 issue = {1},
 journal = {Acta medica et biologica, Acta medica et biologica},
 month = {Jun},
 note = {The burden of rising healthcare expenditure is a social problem in Japan. We assessed the possible role of cardiovascular risk factor evaluation in predicting future increases in healthcare expenditure. The study subjects comprised 2, 317 participants who were previously included in the health check-up survey of 2001. Subjects were free of cardiovascular, renal, and liver diseases and had not required hospitalization or long-term care in the 12-month period after April 2001 (baseline period). Their healthcare expenditure (medical and long-term care expenditure) was tracked from April 2002 to September 2007 (follow-up period). The increase in monthly average healthcare expenditure from baseline to follow-up (Δmonthly-expenditure) was analyzed on the basis of the cardiovascular risk factor status at baseline. After adjusting for other risk factors, optimal blood pressure (<120/80 mmHg) was associated with a small Δmonthly-expenditure for both men (−16, 967 yen vs. normal blood pressure, P = 0.023) and women (−5, 945 yen vs. grade 1 hypertension, P = 0.038); meanwhile, low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (≤1.01 mmol/L) in men (30, 776 – 34, 190 yen vs. higher-level categories, P ≤0.002) and overweight (body mass index ≥25.0 kg/m2) in women (5, 581 yen vs. body mass index = 18.5–<22.0 kg/m2, P = 0.034) were associated with a large Δmonthly-expenditure. Preventing blood-pressure elevation could contribute to mitigating future increases in healthcare expenditure. Low HDL cholesterol in men and overweight in women could be indicators to identify high-risk subjects with deteriorating health conditions that would lead to large increases in healthcare expenditure.},
 title = {Prediction of an Increase in Healthcare Expenditure associated with Cardiovascular Risk Factor Status},
 volume = {58},
 year = {2011}
}